Is The Market Bottom in? Why the Next 8-12 Weeks Mean A Lot

Hello, and welcome back to the Wealth Vault. Today, I’d like to delve into the question everyone’s asking: Has crypto finally hit bottom? After a brutal sell-off in Bitcoin and the altcoin market, we’ve started to see signs of life. Over the past week, some altcoins rebounded by 20% to 30%, and the momentum is building. In this edition, I’ll break down everything that’s been happening and share how I’m adjusting my portfolio to take full advantage of what could come next.

I will focus on:

💎Macro Factors Moving the Market
💎 What Bitcoin’s Price Says

💎Is the Bottom In?
💎How I'm Playing the Market

💎 AI
Let’s get into it⤵️

💎Macro Factors Moving the Market

Here’s a quick overview of the key developments that helped spark the recent market bounce:

1. Tariff Pause

A 90-day reciprocal tariff pause (excluding China) gave global markets a breather. This showed that trade tensions were beginning to ease; at least temporarily.

2. Fed Ready to Step In

The U.S. Federal Reserve made it clear that it's prepared to intervene and stabilize markets if needed. This kind of statement injects confidence and reduces fear-driven selling.

3. Tariff Exemptions for Big Tech

Smartphones, computers, and chip-making equipment were granted exemptions from tariffs. That’s huge for companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, who suddenly got a lifeline for their margins.

4. Trump, China Negotiations

Trump said he’d had conversations with China, and it's going very good, which means trade tensions could soften soon.

5. Trillions of Market Cap Added

The S&P 500 rebounded, adding over $3.5 trillion in market cap from the recent lows. Big tech led the bounce, and with crypto heavily correlated to tech stocks, digital assets rallied too.

With this strong macro setup and renewed optimism, there’s growing evidence that the crypto market may have formed a local bottom. But what does BTC say?

💎 What Bitcoin’s Price Says

While currently in a horizontal range between $78,000 and $87,000, Bitcoin appears to have formed a double bottom. Price wicks have extended below this band, but no candle closes have occurred below the $78k level.

In addition, Bitcoin recently broke out of its downtrend and successfully retested that trendline as support for the first time since its formation. It has also held above that level for several consecutive days, a sign that this breakout might have some staying power.

💎Is the Bottom In?

While not decisively confirmed yet, key signals show the bottom could be in (or at least a local bottom). And for anyone still in the sidelines, the next 8 to 12 weeks are the best to position yourself before it becomes obvious to the rest of the market.

If we zoom in on Bitcoin’s chart, there are clear signs of strength. A double bottom structure is forming, along with a possible inverse head and shoulders. On the daily and 3-day timeframes, we’re seeing higher lows, which is a bullish signal.

But technicals aren’t the only reason to be optimistic. The market hit peak fear recently as recession fears reached their highest point since 2020. Historically, it’s not the recession itself that triggers a bottom; it’s the fear of one.

In addition, over half the market was bearish for seven straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1990. And the Fear and Greed Index dropped to an extreme low of 4. Those kinds of signals often mark significant turning points.

So, is the bottom in? There's a strong case to be made. But don’t mistake this for an all-clear to ape into altcoins without a plan. The smart move now is to stay alert, be selective, and focus on setups with clear strength.

💎How I'm Playing the Market

With no strong confirmations yet, the trick right now is to stay cautious but calculated. While there’s a growing belief that we’ve hit a local bottom, that doesn’t mean it’s time to ape into everything. This means, don’t blindly throw money at the market. Even if the odds favor a bullish move, there’s still a sizable chance things could go sideways. That’s why protecting your capital comes first even as you stay opportunistic.

• Focus on short-term trading opportunities over the next 8 to 12 weeks. Why? Because if that’s the window for market momentum, it doesn’t make sense to lock yourself into long-term altcoin holds.

The goal is to have fresh capital that allows you to jump on quality setups when they appear. Specifically, coins with strong continuation patterns and clear invalidation zones. This allows you to stay agile. If the market turns, you can exit quickly without major losses. And if the rally continues, you can capture upside with minimal risk. It’s a win-win in an unpredictable environment.

💎 AI

One of the narratives that looks set to dominate over this 8-12 week window is AI. Again, look for AI tokens with strong continuation patterns and clear invalidation zones.

Picking out a few: