Altseason Isn’t Dead: My Crypto Playbook for the Second Half of 2025

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Hello, and welcome to another edition of the Wealth Vault. Today, we’ll break down where we are in the market cycle, when Bitcoin could peak, and how you should rotate into altcoins. This edition will also explain why altseason isn’t dead as many seem to believe, and how to spot real opportunities despite the noise. Finally, we’ll look at key launches, top trading setups, and what to watch heading into the next few months. If you want to stay ahead, this is your playbook.

Here’s the full breakdown:

💎Market Update

💎Zoom Out: Altcoin Season is Not Dead

💎Why Altcoins Have Been Bleeding Against Bitcoin

💎Timing the Breakout

💎Altseason Catalysts

💎How to Position Yourself: 5 Altcoins to Buy

Let’s get into it ⤵️

💎Market Update

On the 4-hour chart, BTC has remained range-bound between $100K and $110K, since May, which has made the market feel directionless. Price has chopped between support and resistance for weeks, with no clear breakout yet.

On the weekly chart, $BTC is attempting to press above the last key resistance at $109K. To flip bullish and unlock new all-time highs, this level needs to be broken. On the other hand, dropping below $106.5K, increases the odds of retesting $100K.

💎Zoom Out: Altcoin Season is Not Dead

Short-term noise, daily swings, panic tweets e.t.c. often distracts us from what really matters. The biggest gains don’t come from reacting to every dip and pump. They come from being on the right side of the macro move. And if you’re keen enough, that move is pointing higher.

The S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, and Bitcoin is less than 8% from its own ATH. Altcoin season historically follows when global liquidity improves and rates drop, and both those conditions are falling into place.

As such, a new Bitcoin ATH is imminent. It could come sometime in Q3, Q4, or even Q1 2026. After that, we might get a correction in the first half of 2026, before another potential rally fueled by further easing and lower rates.

The first big move will likely come from rate cut expectations. Bitcoin will catch up to the broader liquidity trend. Then we might see a fake-out pullback, which will set the stage for one final strong leg later in the year. For altcoins, the biggest moves tend to come after Bitcoin finishes its run.

💎Why Altcoins Have Been Bleeding Against Bitcoin

Right now, Bitcoin has the strongest narrative in the crypto market. We’re seeing corporations and treasury departments adding BTC to their balance sheets, growing sovereign interest, and relentless support from high-profile figures like Michael Saylor.

The altcoin market on the other hand is flooded with new token launches, there's visible buyer fatigue, and there’s no unified narrative driving excitement. That said, the dynamic can flip, especially if we enter a clear risk-on environment. If Bitcoin breaks out decisively, confidence could spill over into the altcoin market.

Looking at the bigger picture, macro trends play a key role. The real estate cycle suggests we’re now entering a blow-off top phase. If that plays out, we could see a major market peak in 2026, followed by a broad downturn across risk assets in 2027 and 2028.

The Bitcoin Power Curve model, which tracks price trends across historical cycles, also forecasts a major peak around January 2026. While it doesn’t account for possible monetary easing, which could spark a second rally, it supports the same general bull run timeline.

Following this timeline, you can model your bull run strategy:

• Take profits during the late-2025 or early-2026 peak both in BTC and altcoins

• Be ready to capitalize on short-term opportunities when the market overheats again, just like we saw during mini-rallies in past cycles.

💎Timing the Breakout

A lot of people are still hoping for altseason, but the market has changed. Altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin, and we’re still in a downtrend on the Others vs BTC chart. But that doesn’t mean altcoins are doomed.

This trend will likely continue until Bitcoin breaks out. That’s usually when altcoins start gaining momentum, after Bitcoin’s run is mostly done. Watch the "Others BTC" chart for signs of reversal, especially on lower timeframes. Align that with a BTC breakout to confirm a shift.

Historically, when altcoin dominance excluding stablecoins falls, as it has now, strong reversals follow. It happened in 2019, late 2020, 2022, and 2023. While this cycle is different, some form of rotation always returns. This time, it may be more selective, driven by narratives and real product-market fit, but it will still present major opportunities.

💎Altseason Catalysts

One major difference this cycle is that spot Bitcoin ETFs are soaking up all the demand, and there’s less BTC-to-altcoins rotation. Altcoins will eventually rise, but it won’t be due to the usual capital rotation. It will be because people feel they’ve missed Bitcoin, and they’re speculating on what's next. That means altcoin rallies will be sentiment-driven, not liquidity-driven, and potentially less intense.

In addition, CraneShares has recently filed for a Coinbase 50 Index ETF, which would track the top 50 altcoins. If approved, this will drive passive demand into alts, just like the S&P 500 did for Coinbase. Traders will start bidding on mid-tier coins hoping they’ll get included, which could lift the markets.

💎How to Position Yourself: 5 Altcoins to Buy